MODEL REPORT
How honest is the model?
When the model says a team has a 70% chance, that team should win about 7 times out of 10. Each dot below is a group of predictions. The closer the dots sit to the diagonal, the more honest the model is.
Calibration curve
Predicted vs. actual home win rate in ten buckets, on the held-out season.
Brier score
0.---
Lower is better
Log loss
0.---
Lower is better
Games evaluated
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Split by season, never by play, so no game leaks into training.
Model versions
- v0.1 Logistic baselineIN USE
- v0.2 + team strength (Elo)Planned
- v0.3 Gradient boostingPlanned
How to read it
Dots above the diagonal mean the model is too cautious. Dots below mean it is overconfident. Showing this openly is the point of the page.